A leaked document from the Iranian parliament reveals that Tehran anticipates increased global pressure, including a broader designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as terrorists, in the wake of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel.
A strategic report by the parliament’s monitoring department, Looking at Regional Developments in the Aftermath of the Gaza War, claims that the United States and Israel will adopt the “Octopus Doctrine”, i.e. take measures against Tehran rather than confront its proxies in the region.
However, the document predicts that a direct confrontation with the US or Israel is unlikely.
The parliament’s report assessed that other countries would increase economic pressure on Iran, including by disrupting Tehran’s growing oil sales, and further increase European sanctions based on UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which was the basis of the 2015 nuclear deal and whose military checks and balances expired in October 2023.
Washington’s effort to designate the Revolutionary Guards
Among the report’s conclusions, it predicts that Washington will force its allies to designate the Revolutionary Guards, which pulls the strings of most of the militias in the region.
The report also predicts that Iran’s external resources, such as its export earnings in foreign banks, could be a target for the global community to pressure Iran. It envisions a united international coalition against Tehran, something that, ironically, Iranian dissidents and opposition figures have long called for.
The report outlined several potential scenarios, exploring the possibilities of the Gaza war ending with the status quo – which the report characterizes as a victory for Hamas – or the conflict continuing without definitive results.
